UnionPacific Corporation’s DCF Stock Analysis

Here’s my assumptions for $UNP ( ▼ 1.24% ) :

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 4.09%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.33%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 4.5%

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 1.06%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 3.52%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 11.18%

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 5%

Growth until end of 2026: 10%

Growth until end of 2034: 8%

Perpetual growth: 3.1%

Net Debt: 32.473B

Outstanding Stock Options Present Value Assumption: $0.080B

Restricted Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $0.360B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $285

Last update 07/05/2025

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in UnitedPacific Corporation (UNP) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.