Toll Brothers DCF Stock Analysis. Buy or Sell?

Toll Brothers DCF Stock Analysis.

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Toll Brothers DCF Stock Analysis

Here’s my assumptions:

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 3.98%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.33%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 1%

Last 24 months Beta: 1.24

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 10.03%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 15.77%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): / (from -$137.6 M to $420.3 last TTM)

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 5%

Growth until end of 2026: 10%

Growth until end of 2034: 5%

Perpetual growth: 3%

Net Debt: 2.241B

Restricted Stock Units + Performance Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $0.141B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $102

Last update 08/14/2025

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in Toll Brothers (TOL) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.