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Oracle’s DCF Stock Analysis

Here’s my assumptions for $ORCL ( ▼ 2.75% ) :

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 4.15%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.33%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 3%

Last 24 Months Beta: 1.4

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 4.48%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 3.40%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): -12.25%

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 40%

Growth until end of 2026: 70%

Growth until end of 2034: 15%

Perpetual growth: 3.1%

Net Debt: 97.749B

Outstanding Stock Options Present Value Assumption: $7.971B

Restricted Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $28.889B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $199

Last update 07/28/2025

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in Oracle (ORCL) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.