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HCA Healthcare’s DCF Stock Analysis

Here’s my assumptions:

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 4.15%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.33%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 5%

Last 24 Moths Beta: 0.5

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 5.93%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 10.46%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 3.99%

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 2%

Growth until end of 2026: 3%

Growth until end of 2034: 3%

Perpetual growth: 2.5%

Net Debt: 45.425B

Stock Appreciation Rights Valuation Assumption: $0.786B

Restricted Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $0.870B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $535

Last update 07/30/2025

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in HCA Healthcare (HCA) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.