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Chipotle Mexican Grill DCF Stock Analysis

Here’s my assumptions:

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 4.03%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.33%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 3%

Last 24 Months Beta: 0.88

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 10.23%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 11.94%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 8.76%

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 5%

Growth until end of 2026: 8%

Growth until end of 2034: 8%

Perpetual growth: 3%

Net Debt: 3.234B

Outstanding Stock Options Present Value Assumption: $0.338B

Restricted Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $0.313B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $32

Last update 08/24/2025

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.