Caterpillar DCF Stock Analysis. Buy or Sell?

Caterpillar DCF Stock Analysis

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Caterpillar DCF Stock Analysis

Here’s my assumptions:

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 4.281%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.33%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 3.5%

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 3.26%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 15.69%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): -0.32%

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 3%

Growth until end of 2026: 4%

Growth until end of 2034: 4%

Perpetual growth: 3%

Net Debt: 35.847B

Outstanding Stock Options Present Value Assumption: $19.177B

Stock Appreciation Rights Valuation Assumption: $0.457B

Restricted Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $4.004B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $336

Last update 05/26/2025

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in Caterpillar (CAT) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.